Predictability in Contemporary Medicine.

Medical practice is increasingly coming under the guidance of statistical-mathematical models that are, undoubtedly, valuable tools but are also only a partial representation of reality. Indeed, given that statistics may be more or less adequate, a model is still a subjective interpretation of the researcher and is also influenced by the historical context in which it operates. From this opinion, I will provide a short historical excursus that retraces the advent of probabilistic medicine as a long process that has a beginning that should be sought in the discovery of the complexity of disease. By supporting the belonging of this evolution to the scientific domain it is also acknowledged that the underlying model can be imperfect or fallible and, therefore, confutable as any product of science. Indeed, it seems non-trivial here to recover these concepts, especially today where clinical decisions are entrusted to practical guidelines, which are a hybrid product resulting from the aggregation of multiple perspectives, including the probabilistic approach, to disease. Finally, before the advent of precision medicine, by limiting the use of guidelines to the original consultative context, an aged approach is supported, namely, a relationship with the individual patient.

History repeating. The plague of 1630 in Milan and the COVID-19 pandemia

In western democracies, individual behaviour will be crucial to control the spread of COVID-19, as well as government actions [1] that unfortunately, except China, South Korea and Italy, followed by others, seems to be generally unconvinced and, speculatively, late. Indeed human history has been marked by epidemics/pandemics which have affected, more or less, large geographical areas [2]. Italy, as well as the rest of Europe, has often been affected by these phenomena and, Lombardy, due to his position, was, as today by COVID-19, severely stroked in Italy that is, after China, the second most affected country [3]. This is also linked to the position of Lombardy and its capital, Milan, but this is beyond this brief comment. There are several differences between the past plagues and the actual COVID-19 pandemic and these must be sought in the increased ability to transmit diseases at-distance through the mobility of humans and goods [4], and in the catastrophic consequences of the breakdown of ecosystems, as told, a few years ago, by David Quammen in the book Spillover [5].